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A blog on UConn women's basketball.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Breaking down the bracketologists

In roughly seven hours, the UConn women's basketball team's path towards a sixth national championship will be revealed.

I have my own predictions of what will happen and they happen to resemble the bracket put up this morning by bracketologist Jerry Palm.

I decided to take a look at the bracket predictions of both Jerry Palm and Charlie Creme and provide my two cents.

Palm has UConn in Trenton with Auburn as the No. 2 seed, Florida State as the No. 3 and California as the fourth seed. In my top four picks which ran in Sunday's Register I had UConn, Auburn, Ohio State and Virginia as the top four seeds in the Trenton bracket. I think Florida State could happen although since the Huskies and Seminoles have already played, I placed FSU as the No. 3 out in the Berkeley portion of the draw. I think California's late-season struggles will knock it out of a top four seed.

My main beef with Palm's predictions centers around Duke. He has the Blue Devils as the No. 2 seed in the Raleigh region behind Maryland. While it makes sense from a geography and money-making standpoint. I think when you look at Duke's body of work, it should be enough to land a No. 1 seed. I realize Stanford swept the Pac-10 regular-season and tournament titles while Duke did not with either the ACC regular-season or tournament crown, Duke would still be my pick for the top seed out west.

Why? Well Duke is 3-3 against teams with the top 10 RPIs while Stanford is 0-2. Duke is also 8-4 and 11-4 against the RPI top 25 and 50 respectively to Stanford is 2-3 and 6-4 in the same categories. Then there is the ultimate tiebreaker, Duke 56, Stanford 52 on Dec. 5, 2008.

The wildcard in the top eight or 12 seeds is Baylor. Everybody seemed to write off the Bears after Danielle Wilson's knee injury but then Baylor went out and won the Big 12 tournament without Wilson. How do you drop the Bears down now?

I could see Oklahoma and Baylor being 1-2 in the Oklahoma City regional as Palm predicts meaning Louisville could go to Raleigh as the No. 2 seed behind Maryland and ahead of North Carolina (another placement based on the ability to bring in fans).

Both Palm and Creme had California as a No. 4 seed which seems generous since Cal is 6-4 in the last 10 games and among the losses on the Bears' docket as head-scratchers against TCU, UCLA and USC (in the Pac-10 tournament).

Creme's bracket does not seem to take into consideration previous committee's tendency to place teams in regionals based on their ability to draw fans to the regionals (something the men's tournament committee doesn't need to consider). That's why Rutgers being moved out to the Oklahoma City regional as well as neither Duke nor North Carolina in the Raleigh bracket just doesn't seem likely in my eyes.

I do wish the NCAA would provide a little more thought in the awarding of subregionals. Rutgers, LSU, Michigan State, Iowa and San Diego State all figure to be seeded somewhere between 7-10 meaning No. 1 or No. 2 seeds could be forced to play second-round games on the home courts of lower seeds. If San Diego State receives another at-large bid, another top 1 or 2 seed (most likely Stanford) would have to potentially play at San Diego State to reach the regionals. If Georgia receives an at-large bid, it will be another case of a lower seeded team having a home-court advantage even if the subregional is being held in Duluth, Ga.

ESPN will have a camera crew at Gampel Pavilion to provide live footage of UConn's reaction (if there is any) during the station's unveiling of the brackets (7-8 p.m.) At some point this evening, look for some video with reaction from UConn coach Geno Auriemma and a player/players on the New Haven Register's site at nhregister.com/sports/ncaa.

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