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A blog on UConn women's basketball.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Bracketology time

It's that time of the year when number crunching takes center stage and seemingly everybody takes a crack at predicting the brackets.

It's not an easy process especially with automatic bids still to be determined over the next two days but I figured I would give it a crack.

Here are a few ground rules. First, teams from the same conference can't meet until the regional final and host teams are guaranteed to be - well - hosts meaning that if Old Dominion wins the Colonial tournament, a high seed is going to have to play ODU on its home court.

Personally, I believe that if you have a losing record in your conference during the regular season, you don't deserve an at-large bid. However, I simply ran out of teams so I begrudingly put North Carolina, Maryland and Texas Tech in the field. I also assumed that the highest seeds would win the tournaments over the next couple of days. Of course that is not going to happen so I'll probably revise this before the pairings are announced on Monday. My biggest fear is putting the same team in the bracket more than once as I did with Michigan State on take one but think I have corrected that initial flaw.

Here we go (host teams in bold):
DAYTON
Pittsburgh:
1. UConn, 8. Wisconsin, 9. LSU, 16. SWAC
Ames: 2. Ohio State, 7. IOWA STATE, 10. Marist, 15. Butler/Cleveland St. winner
Cincinnati: 3. XAVIER, 6. St. John’s, 11. Vermont, 14. San Diego State
Austin: 4. Kentucky, 5. TEXAS, 12. Princeton; 13. Bowling Green/Toledo winner

MEMPHIS
Knoxville: 1. TENNESSEE, 8. Ga. Tech, 9. Temple, 16. Austin Peay
Durham: 2. DUKE, 7. Middle Tennessee, 10. Tulane, 15. Hampton
Berkeley: 3. Oklahoma State, 6. Vanderbilt, 11. James Madison, 14. Chattanooga
Louisville: 4. Michigan State, 5. Georgetown, 12. Maryland, 13. Gardner Webb

KANSAS CITY
Minneapolis: 1. Nebraska, 8. Rutgers, 9. Dayton, 16. Riverside/Davis winner
South Bend: 2. NOTRE DAME, 7. Hartford, 10. USC, 15. Long Island
Tempe: 3. Texas A&M, 6. Georgia, 11. North Carolina, 14. East Tennessee
Tallahassee: 4. FLORIDA STATE, 5. UCLA, 12. TCU, 13. Lehigh

SACRAMENTO
Palo Alto: 1. STANFORD, 8. Fresno State, 9. DePaul, 16. Montana St./Portland St. winner
Norman: 2. OKLAHOMA, 7. Gonzaga, 10. Iowa, 15. Lamar
Seattle: 3. West Virginia, 6. North Carolina St., 11. Illinois State, 14. South Dakota St.
Norfolk: 4. Baylor, 5. Virginia, 12. OLD DOMINION; 13. Texas Tech

Second part of this project is trying to figure out who UConn would play in the first round. As my bracket shows, I think the winner of the SWAC final between Southern University and Alabama State will draw the unenviable task of meeting the Huskies first. That could change if a 13-18 South Carolina State team wins the MEAC title or if St. Francis (Pa.) takes the Northeast Conference crown. Austin Peay has been a popular choice to draw UConn but with an emphasis on geographic considerations, I think Austin Peay will land in Knoxville to play Tennessee.

The most intriguing conferences worth watching from a bracketing standpoint are the Colonial (and not because of the Elena Delle Donne angle but because James Madison figures to get in even if they lose in the tournament), Missouri Valley (since Illinois State deserves a spot whether they win the tourney or not) and the Western Athletic Conference since Fresno State should be in regardless of the result in the championship game against Louisiana Tech. However, bubble teams from the major conferences will be sweating out these tournaments because each upset would take away an at-large spot. Other that Texas Christian losing in the Mountain West tournament, the bubble teams have gotten their wish with Tulane (Conference USA), Marist (MAAC), Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt) and Gonzaga (West Coast) all winning their conference tournaments and not requiring at-large bids to get into the field of 64.

The field will be officially announced beginning at 7 p.m. (probably more like 7:10-7:15 once the talking heads stop chattering) on ESPN. Among the highlights of the broadcast is virtual player cards featuring UConn's Tina Charles and Stanford's Jayne Appel. Something tells me ESPN is already on plan B since Baylor freshman Brittney Griner would certainly have been a focal point of the network's Selection Show festivities if not for that ugly incident when the 6-foot-8 Griner slugged an opponent and drew a two-game suspension.

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