My take at predicting the brackets
It is time for my annual exercise in futility as I delve into the world of bracketology.
First, the disclaimer I throw out there every year. There is so much more to this than breaking down who beat who. Obviously the body of work is of paramount importance but the field is not seeding on a true 1-64 fashion. Geographic considerations will make for at least one of the regionals being a bit top heavy. It could also lead to top teams in the power conferences being put in the same regional, something I hope the committee avoids. I'd like to see UConn and Notre Dame in different regions, the same the Baylor and Texas A&M as well as Stanford and UCLA. There is also the predetermined sites for the first and second rounds throwing a fly into the ointment. If a school is a host site and make the tournament, it has to be host the first and second rounds. Year after year the NCAA awards too many subregionals to the West and 2011 is no different. In my bracket, Salt Lake City, Spokane and Albuquerque are host sites for the first two rounds meaning some Eastern teams have a long road trip in their future. There is also the attempt to avoid teams from the same conference playing before the regional final.
Before getting to the bracket, let me discuss the top and bottom portions of the field of 64.
UConn should be an obvious pick for the No. 1 overall seed. The Huskies not only have the top RPI but also have the best record at the top 10 and top 25 (with an absurd 16 games against the cream of the crop). That leaves Baylor, Tennessee, Stanford and Duke vying for the other three No. 1 seed. If you crunch the numbers, Stanford could be the team on the outside as the Cardinal rank below the other candidates in RPI, strength of schedule and number of teams played with RPIs outside the top 50. However, I think Duke will be the one to draw a No. 2 seed.
The race for the final No. 2 seed is just as competitive. I went with Xavier, Notre Dame and Texas A&M joining Duke as No. 2 seeds. UCLA certainly could make a case, especially with a win at Notre Dame early in the season. However, that is UCLA's only win against a team with a top 25 RPI. Taking it one step further, UCLA only played nine teams in the top 50 matching it with Xavier for the lowest number among the teams in contention for No. 1 or 2 seeds. Xavier, which just the 55th best strength of schedule and an 0-2 record against teams in the top 25 of Jerry Palm's RPI could be in danger of being a No. 3 seed.
Now for the other half of things. If you look at RPIs, there are plenty of candidates to draw UConn in the first round including Stetson, Gardner-Webb and Navy. However, a 17-15 Hartford team seems like the obvious choice. Normally the Hawks, coached by former UConn star Jen Rizzotti, tend to be much higher seeds than a No. 16 but this year has been a bit of a struggle for Hartford to claim the America East's automatic bid.
Now for the bracket
PHILADELPHIA REGIONAL
at Storrs
1. UConn vs. 16 Hartford
8. James Madison vs. 9. Marist
at Auburn
4. Kentucky vs. 13. Central Florida
5. Oklahoma vs. 12. Purdue
at Wichita
3. Miami vs. 14. McNeese State
6. Iowa vs. 11. Northern Iowa
at Cincinnati
2. Xavier vs. 15. Navy
7. Iowa State vs. 10. Princeton
DALLAS REGIONAL
at Waco, Tex.
1. Baylor vs. 16. Prairie View
8. Houston vs. 9. Dayton
at Salt Lake City
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Hampton
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Syracuse
at Charlottesville, Va.
3. DePaul vs. 14. Cal-Davis
6. Georgia Tech vs. 11. Vanderbilt
Shreveport, La.
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. South Dakota State
7. West Virginia vs. 10. Kansas State
SPOKANE REGIONAL
at Stanford
1. Stanford vs. 16. Montana
8. Texas vs. 9. Bowling Green
at Alburquerque, N.M.
4. Georgetown vs. 13. Arkansas-Little Rock
5. Florida State vs. 12. Fresno State
at Penn State
3. UCLA vs. 14. St. Francis (Pa.)
6. Penn State vs. 11. Gonzaga
at Spokane, Wash.
2. Notre Dame vs. 15. Utah
7. Wisconsin-Green Bay vs. 10. Louisville
DAYTON REGIONAL
at Knoxville, Tenn.
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Stetson
8. St. John's vs. No. 9 Temple
at College Park, Md.
4. Maryland vs. 13. Tenn.-Martin
5. Rutgers vs. 12. Georgia
at Columbus, Ohio
3. Ohio State vs. 14. Samford
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Duquesne
at Durham, N.C.
2. Duke vs. 15. Gardner-Webb
7. Marquette vs. 10. Arizona State
As you may have noticed, I did not place Duke in UConn's region as many others have. There are two reasons. First, there's no way that the No. 1 overall seed should get the top No. 2 seed. Secondly, there is only about 80 miles different from Duke's campus to Philadelphia and Dayton so why not put the fourth No. 1 seed (Tennessee) against the top No. 2.
Take what I wrote above with a grain a salt because when the pairings are announced on ESPN between 7-8, I'm fairly confident they will bear little resemblance to the bracket I put together.
First, the disclaimer I throw out there every year. There is so much more to this than breaking down who beat who. Obviously the body of work is of paramount importance but the field is not seeding on a true 1-64 fashion. Geographic considerations will make for at least one of the regionals being a bit top heavy. It could also lead to top teams in the power conferences being put in the same regional, something I hope the committee avoids. I'd like to see UConn and Notre Dame in different regions, the same the Baylor and Texas A&M as well as Stanford and UCLA. There is also the predetermined sites for the first and second rounds throwing a fly into the ointment. If a school is a host site and make the tournament, it has to be host the first and second rounds. Year after year the NCAA awards too many subregionals to the West and 2011 is no different. In my bracket, Salt Lake City, Spokane and Albuquerque are host sites for the first two rounds meaning some Eastern teams have a long road trip in their future. There is also the attempt to avoid teams from the same conference playing before the regional final.
Before getting to the bracket, let me discuss the top and bottom portions of the field of 64.
UConn should be an obvious pick for the No. 1 overall seed. The Huskies not only have the top RPI but also have the best record at the top 10 and top 25 (with an absurd 16 games against the cream of the crop). That leaves Baylor, Tennessee, Stanford and Duke vying for the other three No. 1 seed. If you crunch the numbers, Stanford could be the team on the outside as the Cardinal rank below the other candidates in RPI, strength of schedule and number of teams played with RPIs outside the top 50. However, I think Duke will be the one to draw a No. 2 seed.
The race for the final No. 2 seed is just as competitive. I went with Xavier, Notre Dame and Texas A&M joining Duke as No. 2 seeds. UCLA certainly could make a case, especially with a win at Notre Dame early in the season. However, that is UCLA's only win against a team with a top 25 RPI. Taking it one step further, UCLA only played nine teams in the top 50 matching it with Xavier for the lowest number among the teams in contention for No. 1 or 2 seeds. Xavier, which just the 55th best strength of schedule and an 0-2 record against teams in the top 25 of Jerry Palm's RPI could be in danger of being a No. 3 seed.
Now for the other half of things. If you look at RPIs, there are plenty of candidates to draw UConn in the first round including Stetson, Gardner-Webb and Navy. However, a 17-15 Hartford team seems like the obvious choice. Normally the Hawks, coached by former UConn star Jen Rizzotti, tend to be much higher seeds than a No. 16 but this year has been a bit of a struggle for Hartford to claim the America East's automatic bid.
Now for the bracket
PHILADELPHIA REGIONAL
at Storrs
1. UConn vs. 16 Hartford
8. James Madison vs. 9. Marist
at Auburn
4. Kentucky vs. 13. Central Florida
5. Oklahoma vs. 12. Purdue
at Wichita
3. Miami vs. 14. McNeese State
6. Iowa vs. 11. Northern Iowa
at Cincinnati
2. Xavier vs. 15. Navy
7. Iowa State vs. 10. Princeton
DALLAS REGIONAL
at Waco, Tex.
1. Baylor vs. 16. Prairie View
8. Houston vs. 9. Dayton
at Salt Lake City
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Hampton
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Syracuse
at Charlottesville, Va.
3. DePaul vs. 14. Cal-Davis
6. Georgia Tech vs. 11. Vanderbilt
Shreveport, La.
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. South Dakota State
7. West Virginia vs. 10. Kansas State
SPOKANE REGIONAL
at Stanford
1. Stanford vs. 16. Montana
8. Texas vs. 9. Bowling Green
at Alburquerque, N.M.
4. Georgetown vs. 13. Arkansas-Little Rock
5. Florida State vs. 12. Fresno State
at Penn State
3. UCLA vs. 14. St. Francis (Pa.)
6. Penn State vs. 11. Gonzaga
at Spokane, Wash.
2. Notre Dame vs. 15. Utah
7. Wisconsin-Green Bay vs. 10. Louisville
DAYTON REGIONAL
at Knoxville, Tenn.
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Stetson
8. St. John's vs. No. 9 Temple
at College Park, Md.
4. Maryland vs. 13. Tenn.-Martin
5. Rutgers vs. 12. Georgia
at Columbus, Ohio
3. Ohio State vs. 14. Samford
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Duquesne
at Durham, N.C.
2. Duke vs. 15. Gardner-Webb
7. Marquette vs. 10. Arizona State
As you may have noticed, I did not place Duke in UConn's region as many others have. There are two reasons. First, there's no way that the No. 1 overall seed should get the top No. 2 seed. Secondly, there is only about 80 miles different from Duke's campus to Philadelphia and Dayton so why not put the fourth No. 1 seed (Tennessee) against the top No. 2.
Take what I wrote above with a grain a salt because when the pairings are announced on ESPN between 7-8, I'm fairly confident they will bear little resemblance to the bracket I put together.
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