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A blog on UConn women's basketball.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Taking a stab at Big East scenarios

With one game left in the regular season, there's still plenty to be determined for the upcoming Big East tournament as (according to my unofficial breakdown) only top seeded Notre Dame, No. 5 West Virginia, No. 14 Marquette, No. 15 Seton Hall and No. 16 Pittsburgh are locked into their seeds.

Here's what I came up with and thankfully by the time UConn tips off tomorrow night a little after 9 p.m., we should have a clear picture of which teams will be bracketed where.

Here we go:
Notre Dame (14-1 at UConn): Win or loss the Fighting Irish will be the top seed
UConn (13-2 vs. Notre Dame): Will be second seed with a win or St. John's loss. Would be third seed with loss and St. John's win
St. John's (12-3 at Georgetown): Seeded second with win and UConn loss, No. 3 with a win and UConn win, No. 4 with loss to Georgetown
Georgetown (11-4 vs. St. John's): Seeded third with a win; fourth with a loss since Hoyas beat West Virginia
West Virginia (10-5 vs. Pittsburgh): Locked into fifth since it will lose head to head tiebreaker with Georgetown but would win tiebreaker with Rutgers and Louisville
Rutgers (9-6 vs. Marquette): Sixth with a win or Louisville loss; seventh with loss and Louisville win; eighth with loss and wins by Louisville and DePaul
Louisville (9-6 at Seton Hall): Sixth with win and Rutgers loss; seventh with loss or Rutgers win
DePaul (8-7 vs. Cincinnati):  Eighth with a win or South Florida loss; ninth with loss and South Florida win
South Florida (7-8 vs. Providence): Eighth win a win and DePaul loss; ninth with a loss or DePaul win
Cincinnati (6-9 at DePaul): 10th with a win (based on victory over Syracuse); 11th win a loss and Villanova win over Syracuse
Syracuse (6-9 at Villanova): Ninth with win and losses by Cincinnati and South Florida; 10th with a win, a win by South Florida and loss by Cincinnati; 11th with a loss and Cincinnati win.
Villanova (5-10 vs. Syracuse): Will be seeded 10th with a win and Cincinnati loss; 11th with win and Cincinnati win; 12th with loss
Providence (5-10 at South Florida): Would be 12th with a win and Villanova loss; 13th with loss or Villanova win
Marquette (4-11 at Rutgers): Locked into No. 14
Seton Hall (1-14) vs. Louisville): Locked in at No. 15
Pittsburgh (0-15 at West Virginia): Locked in at No. 16

The first half of the league was easier to figure out than the bottom half. Case in point, if South Florida, Syracuse and Cincinnati were to finish with 7-9 records the head to head tiebreaker would not be able to be utilized since each team would finish 1-1. Next would be record against team with best record in the conference. Both South Florida and Cincinnati would own wins over DePaul which would eliminate Syracuse and then South Florida would win the head to head tiebreaker. I'm hoping I addressed every scenario although it can get a little convoluted trying to address every possibility with the teams fighting it out for the 10th, 11th and 12th seeds.

Here's another scenario which could take some work to wade through. If Cincinnati loses to DePaul, Providence beats South Florida and Villanova beats Syracuse that would create a fourth-team logjam at 6-10. Villanova would jump over both Cincinnati and Syracuse based on head to head results and then Cincinnati would be placed ahead of Syracuse. Providence lost to the other three teams and could not win the tiebreaker against the other three teams.

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