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A blog on UConn women's basketball.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Unofficially five seeds locked up for American Athletic Conference women's tourney

Although there are still two days of competition left in the American Athletic Conference regular season, by my computations five of the 11 seeds for the upcoming tournament have been clinched.

1. UConn: Although South Florida can still mathematically tie UConn (although it would take the highly, highly, highly improbable circumstances of the Huskies losing to Memphis and USF), UConn would win the tiebreaker based on a better head to head record against East Carolina.
2. USF: Locked into No. 2 seed
3-6: Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa and Temple are all bunched up with six losses each. The good news is Tulane plays Tulsa and East Carolina meets Temple on Saturday so that will clear things up. East Carolina is in best shape if it wins out since it split the regular-season series with Tulane and Tulsa.  The next tiebreaker would be best quality win and East Carolina would win that by virtue of its victory against South Florida. The only way ECU wouldn't be the No. 3 seed if it beats Temple would be due to a loss to Central Florida on Monday. Tulane would win the tiebreaker with Temple based on its record against Tulsa while Tulsa would win a tiebreaker against Temple since it won the regular-season game between the teams.
7. Memphis: Tigers can't move into the next group and even if they lost the final two games, Central Florida is the only team with the possibility of catching Memphis and the Tigers swept the regular season series
8 Central Florida: The Knights' win over Tulsa would give them a tiebreaker if they finish tied with Cincinnati
9: Cincinnati can lock up the No. 9 seed with a win over SMU on Saturday. It appears that the only way Cincinnati wouldn't be the ninth seed is if SMU beats Cincinnati, both teams lose on Monday and then SMU wins a coin flip since it would be impossible to break the tie any other way.
10: Although Houston could tie SMU, the teams split their regular-season meetings and SMU would win the tiebreaker based on a win over UCF. Only way SMU wouldn't be the 10th seed is if it beats out Cincinnati for the ninth seed,
11 Houston: Locked into No. 11 seed

The tournament starts a week from tomorrow with three games
No. 8 Central Florida vs. No. 9 Cincinnati or SMU, 4 p.m.
No. 7 Memphis vs. No. 10 Cincinnati or SMU, 6 p.m.
No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 Houston, 8 p.m.

The quarterfinals are set for Saturday with UConn playing at approximately 2 p.m. against the winner of the 8/9 game.

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