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A blog on UConn women's basketball.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

My take at bracketology

It's time for my annual stab at predicting the brackets.

There are always a variety of challenges in wading through the numbers including trying to avoid matchups between conference opponents before the regional finals and also dealing with host teams needing to be placed in the subregionals.

Every year top teams are forced to play at a site of a lower seeded teams and this year is no different. I have Sun Belt champion Arkansas-Little Rock champion as a No. 14 seed meaning that a No. 3 seed would have to play its first round game at Arkansas-Little Rock. Baylor, Stanford, Tennessee and Duke are among the top projected seeds who could be forced to play a subregional on the road.

There are 16 automatic bids to be decided in the next two days and the brackets could change significantly. The Horizon League and Colonial Athletic Association title games will draw the most attention from teams residing on the bubble. Regular season champions Green Bay and Delaware will earn tournament bids win or lose but if they get upset the tournament champions could take away spots in the field that teams in larger conferences were hoping to secure.

I usually try to predict which team will be UConn's first-round opponent. Unless Maryland-Baltimore County or Monmouth win the American Each and Northeast Conference titles, I would say that the winner of the Patriot League final between Holy Cross and Navy will draw the Huskies.

Here are my brackets with subregional hosts in all caps:
                DES MOINES RALEIGH                   KINGSTON   FRESNO
      1.     Baylor            NOTRE DAME         UCONN         Stanford
2.     TEX A&M       MARYLAND            Duke             Tennessee
3.     Miami            St. John’s                 Kentucky      PURDUE
4.     Penn State    LSU                           Delaware     Ga. Tech
5.     Rutgers          Kansas State          OKLAHOMA Ohio State
6.     DEPAUL         Nebraska                Bonaventure   Georgetown
7.     Princeton      Georgia                   Louisville       IOWA STATE
8.     GONZAGA    California                S. Carolina    Green Bay
9.     W. Va.           Arkansas                Brig. Young    VANDERBILT
10.   USC               Dayton                   Iowa                M. Tennessee
11.    Florida          Michigan              Marist              Temple
12.    Mich St.        J. Madison          Missouri St      S. Dakota State
13.     ARK-LR         E. Michigan         Sacred Heart   Idaho State
14.      Samford      Howard               Liberty               Fresno
15.       Utep             Fla. GC                 Albany               Cal-Santa Barbara
16.       Alcorn         Tenn-Martin       Holy Cross      San Diego St.
With 12 subregionals being played at host sites that leaves four sites without a host team. With North Carolina not making the field it's only natural that Duke is placed in Chapel Hill. I placed Kentucky in Bowling Green. As for the Old Dominion and Florida State subregionals, I have St. John's and Georgia Tech as the top seeds there.

Once all the conference tournaments are over with, I will revise my bracket.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Delaware will get a 2 seed, not a four seed. They have the second best player in the nation and only one loss. They'll come in much higher than a 4 seed.

8:10 PM 
Blogger Jim Fuller said...

Doubt that very much. Delaware has six games against top 50 RPI teams and strength of schedule in the 50s.

Tennessee has played 22 top 50 teams, Maryland 13, Duke 11, A&M 19, Kentucky 17 and all have better strength of schedules. Having a star player doesn't get you a No. 2 seed but we'll see Monday night.

8:51 PM 
Blogger Stephen said...

UConn isn't a sub-regional host, that would be Fsirfield, err, FAIRFIELD

9:03 PM 
Blogger Jim Fuller said...

They are in my book. Bridgeport isn't bidding for the subregional to have UConn play the first and second rounds elsewhere

11:03 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

But Delaware has a RPI rank of 7. That's impressive, and should offset a somewhat weaker strength of schedule.

11:48 AM 

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